Despite signs that China’s CO₂ emissions may have peaked, ongoing coal expansion and cautious targets suggest the world’s largest emitter still faces major hurdles in meeting global climate goals.
At a Glance
- 44% of climate experts now believe China’s emissions have peaked or will by 2025
- China accounts for 90% of global CO₂ emissions growth since 2015
- Coal still produces nearly 80% of China’s fossil fuel-related emissions
- China has not announced specific plans for a coal phase-out
- Global observers raise concerns over uneven climate obligations across nations
Has China Hit Peak Emissions?
A growing number of climate researchers say China may have reached a turning point in its emissions trajectory. According to a recent survey reported by The Guardian, 44% of experts believe China’s carbon emissions have either peaked or will peak by 2025—up from just 21% last year.
The optimism stems in part from a reported 1% year-over-year drop in emissions, attributed to slower industrial growth and increased deployment of renewable energy. However, coal still dominates China’s energy mix, and experts caution that this small dip does not necessarily mark a long-term decline.
Watch a report: China’s Emissions Path Under the Microscope.
Progress and Caution in Parallel
China has made major investments in solar, wind, and electric vehicle technology, and remains a leader in renewable energy capacity. Yet it also continues to build new coal-fired power plants, citing energy security and reliability concerns.
“China has not yet talked about coal phase-out,” said Wang Xiaojun, a climate expert cited in the Guardian article. The country’s climate targets—emissions peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060—offer flexibility to maintain fossil fuel use in the short term.
Anders Hove, another analyst, noted: “It’s unlikely there will be any commitment to setting a quantitative emissions target that goes beyond present policies.”
A Global Balancing Act
The debate over China’s emissions reflects broader tensions in international climate policy. Developed nations have adopted ambitious emissions cuts, while China, as a developing economy, emphasizes gradual transitions and economic stability.
This has led to concern over what some see as an uneven burden in addressing global warming. China remains the top emitter by volume, responsible for the vast majority of emissions growth since 2015.
Still, many experts argue that China’s climate approach is pragmatic—focusing on targets it is confident it can meet, and scaling clean energy alongside economic development.
Looking Ahead
China’s role in the global climate picture remains pivotal. While short-term reductions are encouraging, long-term success will depend on whether emissions fall at the pace needed to align with international goals.
China’s next steps—particularly any commitment to reduce coal reliance—will help determine whether its emissions have truly peaked or are simply plateauing. As the world prepares for the next round of global climate talks, clarity on these issues will be essential.
