Trump’s latest tariff salvo targets over 180 countries with new import duties, but Russia’s surprising exemption—and Israel’s inclusion—have set off a geopolitical firestorm.
AT A GLANCE
- Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs impose a 10% baseline duty on most of the world, exempting Russia, Canada, Mexico, Cuba, and North Korea.
- Russia’s exclusion is attributed to preexisting sanctions that have already decimated bilateral trade.
- Canada and Mexico face separate, heavier tariffs tied to issues like migration and fentanyl trafficking.
- Despite close U.S. ties, Israel remains subject to new tariffs due to its trade imbalance with America.
- Trump has threatened secondary oil sanctions on Russia if Ukraine peace talks collapse.
Russia’s Exemption Sparks Debate
The Biden administration’s legacy tariffs are officially history, replaced by Donald Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” duties. While the new policy slaps a 10% import tariff on more than 180 nations, Russia—widely seen as a geopolitical adversary—escaped unscathed. According to administration officials, the exemption isn’t an olive branch but a pragmatic move. They claim preexisting sanctions, particularly after Russia’s 2021 invasion of Ukraine, have already tanked bilateral trade, shrinking it from $36 billion to just $3.5 billion annually.
A White House official defended the omission, citing “extremely high tariffs and previously imposed sanctions [that] preclude any meaningful trade.” Yet, with peace talks between Trump and Putin reportedly on the table, critics argue the timing suggests political considerations are creeping into what’s billed as a purely economic policy.
Secondary Oil Sanctions Loom
While Russia is off the tariff list for now, Trump made it clear that goodwill has limits. In a pointed warning, he threatened secondary sanctions targeting Russian oil exports—arguably the country’s economic linchpin.
“If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault—which it might not be—but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil,” Trump said, hinting at crippling sanctions that could isolate Russia from global markets. He didn’t stop there, adding, “If you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States.”
These escalatory threats would force U.S. allies and rivals alike to make a stark choice between Russian oil and access to American markets, escalating the geopolitical stakes.
Watch [analysis of Russia’s tariff exemption and oil threats].
Canada, Mexico Avoid the 10%—But Not Penalties
Canada and Mexico, while also spared the new baseline tariffs, aren’t exactly off the hook. Both nations are still bound by earlier Trump-era executive orders targeting steel, aluminum, and automotive imports—each with tariffs up to 25%. These penalties remain tethered to broader issues like drug trafficking and border security.
The White House fact sheet clarifies that if those existing orders are revoked, tariffs on non-USMCA-compliant goods would jump to 12%—even higher than the baseline 10% applied to most countries. It’s a calculated move that allows Washington to maintain leverage while shielding NAFTA successor states from blanket penalties.
Israel Hit Despite Strong Ties
Perhaps the biggest surprise in Trump’s tariff rollout was the inclusion of Israel—a key strategic ally—as one of the nations subject to the new duties. Despite a strong bilateral relationship and recent easing of certain trade restrictions, Israel’s trade imbalance with the U.S. placed it squarely in Trump’s crosshairs.
A White House official reaffirmed that the policy is guided by trade figures, not friendship: “The tariffs target any nation that exports more to America than it imports.” The administration has cast the policy as strictly transactional, guided by numbers rather than alliances.
Global Trade Policy in Flux
Trump’s tariff doctrine, grounded in “reciprocity,” marks a stark departure from previous administrations that weighed strategic alliances in trade decisions. Allies are no longer shielded, and adversaries aren’t automatically penalized. The message is clear: imbalance, not ideology, is the new red line.
With exemptions, threats, and penalties distributed on a sliding scale, Trump’s trade strategy is reshaping America’s economic posture—and forcing the world to recalibrate its relationship with the U.S.
