A new poll showing democrats leading and trump surging is raising eyebrows among experts who question its reliability and political impact.
At a Glance
- Atlas Intel poll gives Democrats a 9-point lead and Trump a 55% approval rating
- Pollster Mark Mitchell criticizes Atlas data as statistically implausible
- NBC News poll shows Trump at 47% approval, with economic concerns dominating
- Democrats struggle with internal strategy despite polling advantage
- Experts warn media narratives may misrepresent the political landscape
Polling Under the Microscope
A new survey from Atlas Intel has captured attention by placing President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 55% and showing Democrats leading Republicans by nine points on the generic ballot. However, these results have triggered sharp skepticism among polling professionals. Rasmussen’s Mark Mitchell compared the Atlas findings to the now-infamous Selzer poll that inaccurately projected Kamala Harris ahead in Iowa, calling Atlas’s sample sizes “less statistically believable” and joking, “[Atlas is basically saying] ‘I, for one, welcome our socialist overlords…’” (Townhall analysis).
Critics argue that such polling could distort media narratives and public perception, especially in a tightly contested election cycle. The backlash has reignited the broader debate over whether political polling still offers a trustworthy snapshot of public sentiment.
Conflicting Data Clouds the Picture
While Atlas suggests soaring approval for Trump, NBC News’s latest data paints a different picture. Their survey places Trump at 47% approval with 51% disapproval—his best mark to date but still well below majority support (NBC News poll). NBC’s Bill McInturff noted, “The strength of the Republican and Trump base has maintained a very competitive election,” acknowledging that Trump remains viable despite these headwinds.
Watch a report: Media vs. Polling Accuracy – Why the Data Disagrees.
Economic Woes Define the Debate
The most consistent signal across polls is Americans’ grim view of the economy. Just 18% of respondents in the NBC survey rated the economy as “excellent” or “good,” while most cited inflation and high living costs as key concerns. Despite Trump’s recent claim, “I won on the border and I won on groceries,” the data shows many Americans feel their incomes are falling behind (NBC economic breakdown).
These economic anxieties present a structural challenge for Trump’s campaign, even as he leverages cultural and immigration issues to energize his base.
Democrats Navigate a Murky Landscape
Even with favorable numbers from Atlas, Democrats face strategic uncertainty. NBC pollster Jeff Horwitt noted that “Democrats are the ones in the wilderness right now,” emphasizing that while Trump has vulnerabilities, the left still struggles with message clarity (NBC commentary).
The generic ballot remains contested in more balanced surveys, contradicting the Atlas suggestion of a clear Democratic lead. This divergence underscores just how unpredictable the 2026 congressional races may be, even as data continues to churn.
The Media’s Role in Shaping Perception
Outlets like The Nation have run headlines proclaiming that “Trump’s polling numbers have collapsed,” citing multiple surveys and labeling him “historically unpopular.” CNN reportedly compared Trump’s approval at 100 days to “the lowest in seven decades,” while the Washington Post declared that “Trump approval sinks as Americans criticize his major policies.”
The spread between polls has raised alarms about how the media may amplify certain narratives while neglecting the underlying methodological flaws of outlier data. As the election season heats up, analysts stress that poll consumers should focus on track record, transparency, and consistency—not just headline numbers.
Ultimately, the Atlas Intel survey serves more as a Rorschach test for partisan hopes and media spin than as a reliable predictor of the 2026 political battlefield.
