Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, is under scrutiny by French regulators after accurately predicting President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election. Known for offering betting options on political and other significant events, Polymarket’s success in forecasting the election has raised both praise and concerns. The French National Gaming Authority has since announced an investigation into the platform’s compliance with French law.
Polymarket’s model relies on real-time bets to determine likely outcomes, a method that contrasts with traditional polling. On election night, Polymarket’s odds showed Trump as the clear favorite hours before the official media called the race, leading to renewed interest in the accuracy of prediction markets. Polymarket’s CEO, Shane Coplan, explained that the odds reflect a “peer-to-peer” setup, meaning the prices are influenced by market participants rather than external factors.
The French regulator had been eyeing Polymarket — the crypto betting platform which showed Trump being favored to win the presidency — since before its recent surge in popularityhttps://t.co/Vw0R8pzJ14
— Victor Goury-Laffont (@Victorglaf) November 7, 2024
The French gaming authority has warned that Polymarket operates without authorization in France and could face a ban. According to a spokesperson, Polymarket’s activity has been on regulators’ radar, and the current investigation could lead to stricter enforcement measures. Reports indicate that a ban may be imminent as France attempts to curb unauthorized gambling.
REPORT: The French Polymarket trader is set to rake in $48 million in profits and outsmarted nearly every mainstream media pollster in the process.
So how exactly did he outsmart the media pollsters?
According to the Polymarket trader who spoke with the Wall Street Journal, he… pic.twitter.com/kqZyEF78ZG
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 7, 2024
Polymarket’s success has fueled interest in betting platforms as an alternative to traditional polling. Billionaire Thomas Peterffy argued that prediction markets allow participants to bet on outcomes they truly believe will happen, taking emotion out of the equation. In this way, betting markets serve as a different kind of forecasting model, drawing people who see value in a purely market-driven prediction.
🇫🇷 JUST IN: Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, faces a ban in France after a French trader won $19 million on a bet, prompting regulators to deem it illegal gambling. pic.twitter.com/LHnaEC1PLb
— ChainChampion (@Chain_champ1) November 7, 2024
The platform’s success has drawn attention to one trader in particular—a French participant who reportedly earned $85 million by betting on Trump. This significant win has sparked additional interest among European regulators and may further prompt restrictions on access to betting platforms from countries with strict gambling laws.
As Polymarket navigates regulatory challenges in France, its future role in political forecasting remains uncertain. However, its accuracy in the 2024 election has positioned it as a significant player in the prediction market, potentially influencing how political outcomes are forecasted and challenging the dominance of traditional polling.
