Trafalgar: Republican Voters Being Undercounted Again

With just a few weeks left before the critical 2022 midterm elections take place, a top pollster is signaling that republican voters may be undercounted again in the polls.

The pollster, Robert Cahaly, is the head of the Trafalgar Group and believes that republicans may not be inclined to share their political views to pollsters. Cahaly singles out a speech that Biden gave on Sept. 1 where he seemed to target “MAGA Republicans.”

Cahaly observed, during a new podcast from The Daily Wire, that many Republican voters would go “underwater” after many political pundits and liberal talking heads declared MAGA Republicans “enemies of the state.”

“These submerged voters aren’t answering polls, they aren’t putting stickers on their cars, or signs in their yard — they’re not even posting on social media,” Cahaly said. “They are underwater. They’re not saying a word to anybody until election day.”

In his argument, Cahaly points to the 2016 polls leading to the presidential election that showed Hillary Clinton as a shoo-in to win the presidency. When the results were in, Trump was the new president and it was not even close.

In 2020, The Pew Research Center said, “When looking at national polls, the Democratic overstatement will end up being similar, about 4 points, depending on the final vote count.”

There are many reasons for polls to be inaccurate, but Cahaly says that the key is to look at the purpose behind the poll. A poll can either conducted to “reflect the electorate or affect the electorate.” When they are meant to “reflect” they can be great resources for politicians and citizens alike, but when they are meant to “affect” then they are frequently inaccurate, both in their recording and their development.

To Cahaly: “too many of these media and university-based polls are designed to affect the electorate and are trying to create a false narrative quite often when there’s not one.”

Earlier this year, most experts were expecting a red wave akin to some of the largest in American politics. As the midterms approach, however, many have cooled and, based on polling, believe that both the house and senate are up for grabs.

This new information on polling data shows that it could still go either way, but it also shows that since Donald Trump entered the political realm, polls began to drop in accuracy and consistency. With Trump holding rallies all over the country, stumping for senators and governors alike, and maintaining his place at the center of the republican party, the one thing that should be expected is to expect anything, no matter what the polls say.