Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, buoyed by rising approval ratings and diplomatic victories, is contemplating reelection despite a host of daunting challenges.
At a Glance
- Zelenskyy’s government will not hold elections until the war is over and martial law is lifted.
- The U.S. and Russia agree Ukraine should hold elections as part of a peace deal.
- Ukrainian constitution prohibits elections under martial law.
- Zelenskyy’s approval ratings have dropped from 90% to around 50%.
- Elections are unlikely until at least 2026 due to the need for preparations.
Zelenskyy’s Reelection Challenge
Zelenskyy, initially revered with a 90% approval rate, now sees the tides shifting with approval ratings plummeting to about 50%. The steep drop can largely be attributed to the ongoing war that prevents normal electoral processes. The Ukrainian constitution forbids elections under martial law, which complicates matters further. However, with peace talks between the U.S. and Russia urging Ukraine to head to polls, there’s a growing pressure for Zelenskyy to uphold democratic practices.
The absence of his key supporter, Ihor Kolomoyski, who faces legal woes, casts a shadow over Zelenskyy’s future plans. His renewed advantage in diplomatic circles, especially with the breakthrough U.S. ties, counters the fall in public opinion and offers a glimmer of hope. Yet, with a formidable opponent in Valerii Zaluzhnyi and a politically fractured Ukraine, the reelection seems like riding a tempest.
— 4th Estate News (@IVthestate) February 19, 2025
Pressure to Hold Elections
With vehement pressures to reestablish the electoral process, U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg recommended elections following a sustainable peace deal. Despite wishing otherwise, Ukraine, tangled in diplomatic dialogue, realizes elections, even theoretically, might be on the horizon. Elections could provide Russia with opportunities to meddle, risking further destabilization. While unlikely, a pro-Russian government emerging from the ballots could threaten Ukraine’s fragile equilibrium.
The only person that benefits from elections before there’s a durable peace deal is Putin. – Andrew D’Anieri Source
This precarious game of wait-and-watch holds Ukraine hostage to circumstances beyond its control. Exploring all avenues to revamp public morale might foster stronger international alliances as Zelenskyy prepares for contingencies in these testing times. The complex interaction between diplomacy and public opinion keeps Ukraine in a tumultuous dance with destiny.
— 4th Estate News (@IVthestate) February 19, 2025
Public Opinion and Prospects
Conducting accurate polls in war-torn areas remains an intricate but essential task to grasp public sentiment. Surveys paint contradictory pictures of Zelenskyy’s popularity, but they indicate a considerable chunk of the populace yearns for negotiations over continued hostilities. Nearly half the Ukrainian population doubts the credibility of ongoing peace talks, a stark reflection of war-weariness inundating the national consciousness.
Societies experiencing conflict and transition are difficult to study, but the effort is a vital one . . . a critical factor in progress toward a post-conflict future. – Gary Langer Source
As Ukraine braces itself for a complicated future, the resolution of its political landscape hinges on achieving peace and stability. Zelenskyy’s diplomatic acumen, coupled with his ability to navigate internal political storms, could be the deciding factor as he weighs the decision for his potential reelection bid.
