Kamala Harris’ performance in the polls against President Donald Trump is lagging behind the benchmarks set by Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton during their respective campaigns. As of August 31, 2024, Harris leads Trump by just 1.8 points in the Real Clear Polling (RCP) average, a far narrower margin than both Biden and Clinton had at the same time in their races.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 4.6 points at the end of August, and Joe Biden was ahead by 6.3 points in 2020. Despite these relatively comfortable leads, Clinton lost the election, and Biden’s victory hinged on razor-thin margins in several swing states. Harris’s smaller lead raises concerns about her ability to secure a win in November, especially given Trump’s history of closing polling gaps in the final weeks of the campaign.
The Electoral College outlook also reflects the tight race, with Harris holding only a two-electoral vote lead over Trump in the RCP projection. This slim advantage is particularly precarious in light of Trump’s 2016 victory, where he won despite trailing in national polls.
Harris’s challenges are compounded by her limited exposure on the campaign trail. She has conducted just one major interview as the Democratic nominee, in which she sought to reassure voters despite past policy reversals. However, her record as one of the Senate’s most left-wing members continues to be a focal point for critics, which may be hindering her ability to gain broader support.
The upcoming debates with Trump are likely to be a critical moment for Harris, who will need to solidify her position and counter the narrative that she is trailing behind where Biden and Clinton stood at similar points in their campaigns.
